Burma After 3 Years of Coups: The Plunge to Second-Worst Democracy on the Global Index

Burma’s rapid descent on the global Democracy Index is a stark reminder of how fragile democratic progress can be. Once heralded for its cautious steps toward political reform, the nation now ranks as the world’s second-worst performer, surpassed only by Afghanistan according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Burma’s plunge reflects the catastrophic aftermath of the February 2021 military coup and the enduring legacy of military dominance. Burma is reflecting dramatic decline, including political repression, human rights violations, economic collapse, and ongoing ethnic conflicts.

Transition from Semi-Democracy to Military Rule

Political Reforms (2010–2015)

Burma’s transition to semi-democracy began in 2010, when the military implemented reforms that led to semi-democratic elections in 2015. The National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi, achieved a landslide victory, bringing hope for democratic governance. However, the 2008 constitution, drafted by the military, ensured that the Myanmar Military (Tatmadaw) retained significant power, including control over key ministries and a guaranteed 25% of parliamentary seats.

February 1, 2021 Coup

The fragile democratic progress unraveled on February 1, 2021, when the military staged a coup d’état, citing unsubstantiated claims of electoral fraud after the (National League for Democracy) NLD’s victory in the November 2020 elections. The coup occurred on the day the newly elected parliament was set to convene. Declaring a state of emergency, the Tatmadaw reinstated direct military rule, plunging the nation into chaos.

Human Rights Violations

Brutal Crackdown

The junta’s response to dissent has been characterized by severe human rights violations. According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), more than 20,000 political prisoners have been detained. These prisoners face brutal conditions, including torture and, in some cases, execution following death sentences. Notable cases include the executions of prominent pro-democracy activists Kyaw Min Yu (Ko Jimmy) and Phyo Zeya Thaw. The military’s actions have instilled widespread fear and silenced countless voices advocating for freedom.

Humanitarian Crisis

The violence has triggered a severe humanitarian crisis. The United Nations reports that millions of Burmese face food insecurity, while over 1.6 million people have been displaced internally or forced to flee as refugees. The crisis has drawn international condemnation, yet effective intervention remains elusive.

Forced Displacement

The internal displacement of Burmese citizens has reached unprecedented levels, with entire communities uprooted due to military offensives. Ethnic minorities, particularly in conflict zones, bear the brunt of this crisis. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) highlights the dire conditions faced by refugees, including limited access to food, shelter, and medical care. According to UNHCR more than 3,484,300 people have already been displaced within Myanmar.

Military Conscription and Civil War

The junta began enforcing the conscription law on February 10, 2024, targeting men aged 18-35 and women aged 18-27 for up to two years of service. It has intensified military conscription efforts, forcing young people to join its ranks. Many flee to avoid fighting in an escalating civil war that has engulfed vast swathes of the country. The war’s expansion underscores the junta’s inability to consolidate control, as armed resistance from ethnic groups and pro-democracy forces grows.

The Rohingya Crisis and Broader Ethnic Cleansing

The military’s abuses are not confined to the post-coup period. For decades, the Tatmadaw has waged brutal operations against ethnic minorities, including the genocide against the Rohingya in 2017. Similar atrocities have been documented in other ethnic states, perpetuating a cycle of violence and displacement.

Myanmar is currently defending itself against Rohingya genocide allegations at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in a case brought by The Gambia. The case, initiated in November 2019, accuses Myanmar of violating the Genocide Convention through its actions against the Rohingya ethnic group operated by Myanmar military.

Addition to ICJ, the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor has requested an arrest warrant for Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar's military commander-in-chief for alleged crimes against humanity on November 27, 2024.

The Myanmar Military has been facing a lot of international pressures from all sides. Western governments have imposed targeted sanctions, but these measures have yet to yield significant change.

Economic Collapse

The coup’s economic impact has been devastating. Years of modest progress under semi-democratic rule have been reversed, with the economy contracting sharply in 2021. International sanctions imposed on the junta have further crippled Burma’s economic prospects, exacerbating poverty and unemployment. The World Bank predicts prolonged stagnation unless political stability is restored.The World Bank has projected a contraction in Myanmar’s economy for the current fiscal year, citing factors such as high inflation, a weakening currency, and shortages in electricity and labor, all of which are adding pressure on the war-torn country.

For the fiscal year ending in March 2025, the country’s GDP is now expected to decline by 1%, reversing the earlier forecast of 1% growth. This revised outlook is further worsened by the impact of Typhoon Yagi, which struck in September, according to the World Bank's latest report. Meanwhile, Myanmar's military junta has predicted a growth rate of 3.8%.

According to the World Bank's updated forecast, Myanmar's economic output in 2025 would have decreased by about 11% compared to 2019 levels. This decline is largely attributed to the economic disruptions caused by the military coup in 2021, which reignited civil conflict throughout the nation.

What would be the future of Burma?

Burma’s ongoing crisis stems from deep-seated political and social divisions. The lack of unity among revolutionary groups, compounded by differing ideologies and backgrounds, has hindered effective resistance against the junta. Geopolitical factors further complicate the situation, as Burma’s proximity to China and India allows external powers to exert influence over ethnic armed organizations and the military.

To move forward, Burma’s revolutionary forces must unite around a shared vision of democracy, freedom, and equal rights. Without such ideological cohesion, the country faces the risk of prolonged instability and continued suffering. International support and humanitarian aid are crucial to alleviate the suffering caused by the brutal civil war and the pervasive lack of stability.